I originally bought this book last year, I read about half of it but gave up in disgust at the general pretentiousness and repetition.
I picked it up again this year after the credit crunch had hit and it seemed to be a different book, funny with some insight into current market turmoil! Assuming the book hadn't changed while on my shelf, presumably I had.
The core idea is very simple, Gaussian (Normal/ bell curves) distributions are overused in finance and they critically underestimate the chances of high impact relatively rare events which are best modelled as Power laws (see the The Long Tail: How Endless Choice is Creating Unlimited Demand for another take). Taleb covers the slightly strange beat where finance/ statistics/ ... Read More:
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John Kenneth Galbraith's classic study of the 1929 Wall Street crash is an exhilarating read. Galbraith combines a fluent, witty style with a detailed breakdown of the build up to disaster,
It is interesting to note how most of the experts - journalists, academics, businessmen, bankers and politicians didn't have a clue what was going to happen and thought that the good times would carry on rolling.
I would suggest that this book is NOT for someone who has a clear view of where they are going in life, and how they will get there. For in both the large and small events in life, there are unpredictable events. Nassim Taleb talks about how we handle those events, and more importantly, how we can use them in our favour. If you are one I recommend not to start the book, the reading may change your outlook. Permanently.
Taleb is a market trader, with experience of having survived several severe financial storms - `difficult trading conditions'. The book is peopled with real and composite characters from his trading life. Most are no longer working in the market, a result of having `blown up'. The essence of the volume is in the title, describing ... Read More:
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This is without a doubt the best book that has ever been written on professional options trading and I simply cant understand why anyone would give a less than glowing review. If there is anything better out there (and i dont mean a pricing book that leaves the reader to infer his own trading realities from the models and hedge ratios that ensue) then I'd love to see it.
Of course this isnt a mathematically rigourous platform to learn the pricing and hedging of option products, Taleb is entirely clear that it wasnt meant to be. Instead it offers one source for a multitude of much, much more intuitive lessons on trading, probability, and market realties offered in a persistently thought provoking, even entertaining style.
I originally bought this book last year, I read about half of it but gave up in disgust at the general pretentiousness and repetition.
I picked it up again this year after the credit crunch had hit and it seemed to be a different book, funny with some insight into current market turmoil! Assuming the book hadn't changed while on my shelf, presumably I had.
The core idea is very simple, Gaussian (Normal/ bell curves) distributions are overused in finance and they critically underestimate the chances of high impact relatively rare events which are best modelled as Power laws (see the The Long Tail: How Endless Choice is Creating Unlimited Demand for another take). Taleb covers the slightly strange beat where finance/ statistics/ epistemology (Philosophy ... Read More:
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Excellent book. I used Jim's lecture notes before the book was published, they were (and still are) the best notes for equity quants. The book essentially contains published lecture notes and I bought it as an aknowledgment to his contribution to equity quant comunity.
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I would suggest that this book is NOT for someone who has a clear view of where they are going in life, and how they will get there. For in both the large and small events in life, there are unpredictable events. Nassim Taleb talks about how we handle those events, and more importantly, how we can use them in our favour. If you are one I recommend not to start the book, the reading may change your outlook. Permanently.
Taleb is a market trader, with experience of having survived several severe financial storms - `difficult trading conditions'. The book is peopled with real and composite characters from his trading life. Most are no longer working in the market, a result of having `blown up'. The essence of the volume is in the title, describing situations where an apparent ... Read More:
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Fooled by Randomness is based on a basic truth about humans: we are not very good at statistics, especially if we simply rely on our instincts. For example, we fear airplanes, sharks and terrorists, yet we rarely think about mundane risks like cancer and car accidents. Similarly, we are not good at judging investments. We think that the broker who picked three winners in a row must know something; not necessarily so, says Taleb.
This book is well worth reading, especially if you ever invest in individual stocks or managed stock funds (it will probably talk you out of doing so). It certainly is not an investment guide, however, so do not buy it if you are looking for a hot stock tip.
Taleb has a quirky writing style. This certaintly is not a "pretty" book. Nevertheless, it ... Read More:
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I originally bought this book last year, I read about half of it but gave up in disgust at the general pretentiousness and repetition.
I picked it up again this year after the credit crunch had hit and it seemed to be a different book, funny with some insight into current market turmoil! Assuming the book hadn't changed while on my shelf, presumably I had.
The core idea is very simple, Gaussian (Normal/ bell curves) distributions are overused in finance and they critically underestimate the chances of high impact relatively rare events which are best modelled as Power laws (see the The Long Tail: How Endless Choice is Creating Unlimited Demand for another take). Taleb covers the slightly strange beat where finance/ statistics/ epistemology (Philosophy of Knowledge) meet. The only other ... Read More:
>>More Details
Fooled by Randomness is based on a basic truth about humans: we are not very good at statistics, especially if we simply rely on our instincts. For example, we fear airplanes, sharks and terrorists, yet we rarely think about mundane risks like cancer and car accidents. Similarly, we are not good at judging investments. We think that the broker who picked three winners in a row must know something; not necessarily so, says Taleb.
This book is well worth reading, especially if you ever invest in individual stocks or managed stock funds (it will probably talk you out of doing so). It certainly is not an investment guide, however, so do not buy it if you are looking for a hot stock tip.
Taleb has a quirky writing style. This certaintly is not a "pretty" book. Nevertheless, it is easy enough to read. ... Read More:
>>More Details